01 · Define
Read the question
Identify the event, outcomes, close date, official source, and edge cases. The rules are the contract’s operating instructions.
Research hub · source-backed comparison
Prediction markets, explained before you take a position.
Learn how event questions become tradable YES/NO or multi-outcome shares, how prices can imply probabilities, why rules determine settlement, and how fees differ between platforms. Compare Polymarket, Kalshi, Predict.fun, Limitless, Opinion, SX Bet, and XO Market without treating inclusion as a recommendation.
7
profiled platforms
YES / NO
the beginner model
0
guaranteed outcomes
Start here
How prediction markets work for beginners
A prediction market is not simply a yes-or-no poll. It is a rules-based market where participants trade positions on possible outcomes. The price is an exchange signal: it can reflect what traders collectively believe, but it is influenced by liquidity, fees, market design, incentives, and information quality.
02 · Price
Interpret the share
A 63¢ YES share can be read as roughly 63% market-implied probability, not a promise. Spread, fees, and thin liquidity affect what you can actually trade.
03 · Resolve
Follow the source
A provider, oracle, review team, or hybrid process applies the market-specific rules after the event reaches its determination window.
04 · Settle
Receive the result
Winning positions may redeem for the documented payout; losing positions may become worthless. The exact mechanics vary by platform.
What to compare
A platform is more than its headline probability.
Before acting, compare the order model, collateral, taker and maker fees, minimums, spreads, settlement source, dispute process, custody, account requirements, market availability, and any separate product such as perps, parlays, or yield. A low-looking share price is not the same as a low total cost or a likely outcome.
Safety checklist
- Read the full market rules, not only the title.
- Confirm the outcome, collateral, close time, and resolution source.
- Check whether the order is a maker or taker and what fees apply.
- Do not treat displayed probability as certainty or guaranteed return.
- Verify region, account, wallet, tax, and legal obligations independently.
Featured partner profileCLOB prediction market
Start with the mechanics, then compare Polymarket.
Polymarket is highlighted because CryptosBeginner has a disclosed partner relationship—not because inclusion or position is a guarantee of liquidity, access, safety, fees, or outcome. Use the profile to understand outcome shares, order books, fee categories, and resolution rules before deciding whether the product fits your own situation.
Affiliate disclosure: CryptosBeginner may earn a commission from this partner link. It does not affect editorial inclusion, comparison order, provider terms, fees, or safety.
A simple mental model
1
Question: a market defines one future event and its possible outcomes.
2
Price: traders buy or sell outcome shares at an exchange price that can imply probability.
3
Resolution: the published rules and source determine which outcome, if any, pays.
Showing 7 of 7 platforms
Provider facts reviewed 27 August 2026
Check each market’s rules before acting
Polymarket
Priority profilePolymarket
A crypto-collateralized prediction market where users trade outcome shares on future events.
Topics: Crypto, Politics, SportsCollateral: USDC and related settlement assets described by the selected market or product.Fees: The official documentation states that makers are not charged and that taker fees apply only to certain markets. The fee formula and rates vary by category; geopolitical and world-events markets are listed as fee-free in the reviewed documentation.
Sponsored link disclosure: commission may be earned; it does not change listing order or provider terms.
KA
Kalshi
KalshiEX LLC
An event-contract exchange where participants trade contracts tied to real-world outcomes.
Topics: Politics, Sports, WeatherCollateral: Cash balance and contract terms shown in the Kalshi account and market interface.Fees: Kalshi states that it charges transaction fees based on expected contract earnings; some markets can have different schedules, and some maker fees may apply when resting orders execute.
PR
Predict.fun
Predict
A prediction-market platform for trading YES and NO shares, including multi-outcome markets.
Topics: Crypto, Sports, Multi-outcomeCollateral: Provider-specified settlement asset and Smart Wallet flow; confirm the live market before funding.Fees: Predict documents gasless trading through its Smart Wallet, taker-only fees that vary with share price, maker rebates, and possible invite discounts. Deposits, withdrawals, bridging, and yield-bearing products can have separate costs.
LI
Limitless Exchange
Limitless
A Base-based decentralized prediction market with outcome shares, AMM markets, and an order-book interface.
Topics: Base, CLOB, AMMCollateral: USDC or the collateral specified by the selected market.Fees: Limitless documents a 0.40% AMM fee, possible promotional or market-specific reductions, and dynamic CLOB fee ranges; resting makers pay no fee while instantly matched takers pay according to the market and side.
Sponsored link disclosure: commission may be earned; it does not change listing order or provider terms.
OP
Opinion Trade
Opinion Labs
A prediction exchange for creating, trading, and resolving real-world event markets.
Topics: Opinion AI, CLOB, Multi-outcomeCollateral: Settlement asset such as USDT, according to the provider’s fee documentation.Fees: Opinion documents taker-only fees that range from 0% to 1% and rise as probability approaches 50%, with a $5 minimum order and $0.25 minimum fee; discounts and gas treatment are subject to provider terms.
SX
SX Bet
SX Bet
A peer-to-peer betting exchange where makers post odds and takers accept available market orders.
Topics: Sports, Peer-to-peer, ParlaysCollateral: USDC in the supported betting wallet flow.Fees: SX Bet’s current documentation states 0% for single bets and a 5% fee on winning parlays; its fee page separately describes a 1% net-profit taker fee in the current schedule, so users should confirm the live market and applicable product terms.
XO
XO Market
XO Markets
An event-market infrastructure and API product identified in the provider’s public documentation.
Topics: Infrastructure, API, Event marketsCollateral: Product and integration terms require confirmation from XO Markets.Fees: The reviewed public API documentation says XO Markets charges no commission on trades but may include a spread; this older documentation should be verified against current terms before publication as a trading-cost claim.
FAQ
Prediction-market questions, answered plainly
What is a prediction market?＋
A prediction market lets people buy and sell positions tied to possible outcomes of a future event. Prices can act as market-implied probabilities, but they are not guarantees, financial advice, or proof that an outcome will occur.
How do YES and NO shares work?＋
In a binary market, YES and NO are the two possible outcomes. Before the event, they trade at prices shaped by supply, demand, information, liquidity, and fees. After the market follows its published resolution rules, the winning outcome may receive the stated payout and the losing outcome may become worthless.
How are prediction markets resolved?＋
The market’s rules normally specify the source, cutoff time, settlement criteria, and edge cases. Resolution may be handled by a provider team, an oracle, an AI-assisted process, or a combination. Read the individual market rules rather than relying only on the title or displayed probability.
Are prediction markets the same as sportsbooks or DEXes?＋
No. A prediction market trades event-linked outcome positions; a sportsbook may set its own odds and terms; a DEX swaps tokens or matches crypto orders. Some platforms combine exchange, wallet, oracle, or betting features, so the product label and rules should be checked carefully.
Does CryptosBeginner recommend Polymarket or any other platform?＋
No. Polymarket is highlighted because CryptosBeginner has a disclosed partner relationship, not because the site guarantees its access, fees, liquidity, safety, or outcomes. Every listing is an informational comparison and should be checked against current provider terms.
Educational comparison only. Provider rules, fees, availability, and market status can change.
Compare DEXes separately